Grupo de Lima: la política exterior Argentina es una calesita
El guiño al dictador Maduro, y las complicaciones de una renegociación de la deuda con el FMI
Por Heráclito Gómez
Decir que la política exterior de la Argentina es una calesita es tal vez la metáfora más apropiada para señalar que en materia de diplomacia damos vueltas para no llegar jamás a ningún lugar. La salida del Grupo de Lima no es gratuita, y traerá seguramente varias complicaciones al país, sobre todo, porque se da en el mismo momento que el ministro de Economía intenta ganar tiempo con el FMI.
El Grupo de Lima, creado para buscar una salida consensuada y democrática a la dictadura venezolana fue creado por Estados Unidos, y el propio Fernández se había comprometido a no abandonarlo si ganaba las elecciones. Pero como todo es imprevisible en Argentina, incluso aquello que debiera tener un marco de previsibilidad como son las relaciones exteriores, ayer se dio un nuevo giro, que más que giro es un guiño a la dictadura Madurista y un desafío a la Casa Blanca.
El tema no es tanto si uno se enfrenta o no con Washington, sino las condiciones de ese enfrentamiento. Es decir, se sabe que el voto de EE.UU. es clave para los acuerdos del FMI, algo que el gobierno necesita desesperadamente, pero se decide “chocar” contra EE.UU., para posicionarse junto a un país, que más allá de las afinidades ideológicas del kirchnerismo con los bolivarianos, no aporta absolutamente nada a las necesidades de nuestro país en cuanto a crédito internacional, o simplemente salir de la crisis de la deuda.
Mientras Fernández intenta relativizar la salida del Grupo de Lima, arguyendo que buscará una salida pacífica, la Casa Blanca hace su propia lectura: el alineamiento total del país con China, Rusia, Iran y Cuba, que buscan socavar el poder de Estados Unidos en la región. Eso no sería problema si no estuviera en discusión nuestra deuda, de la cual el principal aliado serían los EE.UU.
Por eso, creo que Argentina termina funcionando como una calesita, da vueltas para no terminar en ningún lado, se definen alianzas con el bloque sino-ruso, pero depende de EE.UU. para lograr acuerdos que le permitan tener tranquilidad interna. Vivimos en un mundo multipolar, pero eso requiere aún mayores habilidades para generar alianzas que permitan establecer un norte para la política exterior del país. Argentina juega a todas las puntas, a ver si en alguna la pega, pero lo que demuestra es una improvisación total, por un lado, y por el otro, que prefiere un posicionamiento ideológico antes que práctico. Hasta el General Perón fue mucho más hábil en este terreno, cuando conformó los países no alineados frente al mundo bipolar. En ese momento el país tenía una estrategia, que podría ser discutible, pero tenía un horizonte.
Hoy no hay horizonte, se juega a partir de las necesidades del momento y de lo que dicten los amigos. Tan es así, que mientras Guzmán discute condiciones favorables para el país, sus propios jefes le dan la espalda al país con el que discute. Parece una política de psiquiátricos, pero es más bien la falta de un horizonte en términos de alianzas a mediano y largo plazo, y una lectura del mundo que se viene, en donde quizás los Estados Unidos no vaya a ser el único actor, pero tampoco su poderío va a menguar como creen los agoreros de la izquierda. Pensar eso, no sólo es una ingenuidad, sino un desconocimiento total de los procesos globales que están ocurriendo en el mundo.
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