Profecía autocumplida: volver a fase I como única propuesta ante el fracaso estatal
Los infectólogos recomendaron al gobierno aplicar mayores restricciones
Por Heráclito Gómez
Conocer algo sobre la epidemiología hace que algunos nos tornemos cautos, o al menos escépticos respecto a la “pandemia” de covid19. En realidad, algo muy frecuente que sucede en nuestras sociedades de la sobreinformación es que la evidencia empírica, científica y fundada ha dado paso a una especie de validación de la opinión por acumulación de likes, retuits o cuestiones parecidas.
Y lo mismo pareciera suceder con la ciencia, cuanto más se repite algo, más verdadero parece, o al menos termina transmutando su sustancia de opinión a hecho. Algo parecido ocurre con lo sanitario, en dónde un infectólogo recomiendo “cerrar todo” y ya es suficiente dato empírico para lanzarlo al ruedo. Pero las evidencias, además del aumento de casos para esa recomendación nunca se presentan. Es decir, más casos no es signo de nada, sino le falta el contexto. Y concretamente quiero ir al punto que, si bien han “subido” los contagios, y lo entrecomillo porque lo que no se discute es como se han presentado los datos para esta “suba” descontrolada, pero la mortalidad, respecto a ese fenomenal aumento, pareciera ser aún menor que la del año pasado.
Hay como dos cosas en juego que valen la pena revisar por sus consecuencias. Por un lado, la construcción estadística de los datos, su presentación para la toma de decisiones en materia sanitaria, y por otro, la comparación con eventos sanitarios de años anteriores, de los que sí se disponen datos como para confrontar la situación actual con la historia de las enfermedades.
Quizás alguien podría alegar que con el covid19 el problema que surge es que es una enfermedad nueva, aunque técnicamente es una variante nueva de un virus conocido, los coronavirus son más bien una familia, y el covid sars 2 no es una excepción. Volviendo al tema, hoy esta puesta en la escena pública el aumento estadístico de casos para presentar una situación catastrófica que amerita la necesidad de medidas de urgencia, las cuales terminan limitando una serie de derechos civiles que la ciudadanía debería ejercitar libremente, pero que por el “bien supremo” se suspenden mientras dura una emergencia cuya peligrosidad es relativa.
El punto es, que el aumento estadístico de casos se debe a dos cosas fundamentales: el aumento de testeos, y la acumulación de casos que no siempre se corresponden con el día de presentación del dato. En la primera cuestión, la del aumento de testeos, cuando alguien aumenta la población de estudio, es lógico que aumente la posibilidad de ocurrencia de una variable, pero esto no quiere decir necesariamente que haya más de eso, sino que aparece en función de la población relevada, por eso, se utilizan formulas para calcular los porcentajes de, en este caso, positividad y comparar porcentajes respecto a otros periodos y no números relativos. Es decir, da lo mismo el 30% de 100 mil que de mil, si se mantiene ese porcentaje constante al aumentar la población testeada, sencillamente lo que marcaría es que siempre hubo un 30% de contagiados sobre cantidad de testeados, aunque la cantidad en sí misma es irrelevante en términos numéricos.
Pero he aquí que lo que se presentan son números relativos, con lo cual, pareciera que estamos ante la peor de las catástrofes, aunque quizás estemos igual que hace un mes atrás. Lo que afecta está presentación es la percepción que tenemos de la situación y activa todos los mecanismos de defensa que tenemos los humanos ante el miedo o una situación desconocida.
Por otro lado, y cómo segundo punto, me gustaría convocar al lector a que revise los resúmenes de los eventos respiratorios producidos por distintos virus vinculados al coronavirus actual como las gripes o neumonías que sufren los países de todo el mundo anualmente. Al comparar cifras, incluso de cuadros o gráficos ya hechos por otros, uno no puede dejar de notar dos cosas, que para mi son determinantes: por un lado, no hay más casos de fallecimientos que en años anteriores en los cuales no existía el covid19, y que el sistema de salud suele colapsarse todos los años entre mayo y agosto en los países que se encuentran en invierno, y sobre todo en Argentina, donde en ese periodo suelen haber mas de 1,5 millones de consultas en el sector público que es el que lleva la cuenta epidemiológica de casos. A estos hay que sumarle una cantidad casi igual de casos que asisten a las obras sociales, médicos laborales, o que sencillamente no consultan.
El relato del sistema sanitario colapsado es un mito más que una realidad, porque es algo que sucede anualmente, y cualquier médico que trabaja en un hospital lo sabe. Más aún, también saben que se colapsan los servicios de pediatría porque los virus estacionales que afectan las vías respiratorias suelen afectar a niños menores de 6 años y a adultos mayores de 60 años con mayor frecuencia. Una importante cantidad de casos de estas “gripes” requieren internación porque se complican o se forman neumonías y es lo que termina generando la mortalidad de los pacientes.
Pero todo esto pareciera haberse dejado de lado en la reflexión científica de la medicina, y ha sido reemplazado por un relato alarmista, aterrador y policíaco que más pareciera servir a los políticos que a la gente. Por eso las restricciones del DNU presidencial son letra muerta, las necesidades de la gente, después de un año en el que el miedo se enseñoreo en las sociedades occidentales son más importantes que contagiarse un virus, más aún, que hemos aprendido a convivir con el mismo, algunos con mayores precauciones y otros con menos.
La dictadura de la pandemia, que evidentemente no es algo local, sino más bien global, pareciera dominar todos los discursos, y aquí la aprovecha muy bien el oficialismo para llevar adelante sus políticas sin la presencia de la sociedad civil en las calles, sino protestando desde sus cuentas de twitter o Facebook contra medidas que, en otra situación, se hubieran expresado en el espacio público.
La pandemia es una profecía autocumplida que le permite a quienes conducen el estado no rendir cuentas: compras sin licitaciones, contrataciones de personal sin control de la sociedad u otros organismos, militarización del espacio público, restricción de libertades individuales, y lo más peligroso de todo, suspensión de las elecciones, intervención en la economía y en la propiedad privada como excusa de la emergencia sanitaria.
Y quisiera dejar sentado que no niego la existencia del virus, tan solo cuestiono la falta de sentido común, la zombificación del barbijo en la vida cotidiana, la construcción política de los datos y la manipulación del miedo para la creación de intereses que no son los del bien común de todos los ciudadanos. Un buen ejemplo de esto, y que se está empezando a conocer estos días, es que se dice que en la CABA aumentan los casos, pero lo que no se dice, es que muchos de esos casos son de residentes de la provincia de Buenos Aires que utilizan el sistema público de la capital antes que los de la provincia.
Otro buen ejemplo es el de la educación, que mientras se está probando, estadística y empíricamente, que los contagios entre niños y docentes son casi nulos, los gremios claman por una suspensión inmediata de las clases. Este y tantos otros ejemplos que uno pueda encontrar no son más que la profecía autocumplida de un grupo de ilusionados, quizás impulsados por un demente como Slavoj Sisek, que creen que una pandemia puede terminar con las “injusticias sociales” y con el capitalismo, cuando en realidad, lo único que está aniquilando es nuestro sentido común y nuestras libertades más básicas.
Las restricciones que hoy impulsa el gobierno y el «grupo de científicos» evidencian el fracaso de un estado que utilizó el miedo como política y hoy se encuentra encerrado en su propia trampa. Cerrar es generar más caos económico y dinamitar sus chances electorales para el futuro, y mantener abierto le plantea los mismo problemas, ya que gran parte de su base quiere el encierro a toda costa. La paradoja del gobierno va a ser la del mal menor, y seguramente nos encierren, porque aún perdiendo, los propios van a seguir en el campo de batalla, aunque las evidencias para el cierre no sean lo suficientemente concluyentes para esa decisión, pero ya se sabe, las decisiones políticas no siempre se basan en la racionalidad o en la ciencia, sino en la propia dinámica del poder.
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