PRONOSTICAN QUE LAS LLUVIAS ABUNDANTES PARA EL CAMPO ARGENTINO LLEGARÁN EN ABRIL Y SE EXTENDERÁN EN 2024
Varias oficinas meteorológicas mundiales indican que los tiempos de una intensa sequía en el Cono Sur americano, producto de los efectos de “La Niña”, llegarán a su fin a mediados de año.
Dos fenómenos meteorológicos bautizados con dos sustantivos singulares, El Niño y La Niña, son fundamentales para determinar la productividad del campo argentino, capaz de alimentar a 400 millones de personas.
El fenómeno conocido como “El Niño” está íntimamente relacionado con el calentamiento del Pacífico oriental a la altura del Ecuador y se manifiesta de manera irregular, en ciclos de entre tres y ocho años.
No es que El Niño represente la faz benéfica del clima y La Niña la cara maligna. El primero produce abundantes e intensas lluvias que serán reparadoras para el campo argentino pero generará estragos en la zona ecuatorial debido a las inundaciones.
La Niña, que comienza a disiparse lentamente, después de ser la responsable de la falta de precipitaciones, deja un escenario de sequía que incluyó días de extremo calor, producto del calentamiento del océano Atlántico y los persistentes vientos polares que contribuyeron a reducir la entrada de humedad al contraponerse a la circulación tropical.
Ahora bien, las malas noticias por las pérdidas millonarias en las cosechas de la zona núcleo, de la pampa húmeda, que comprende tierras de Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, Córdoba, Entre Ríos y La Pampa, 500.000 kilómetros cuadrados consideradas una de las más aptas del mundo para la producción agropecuaria, llegarán a su final si los pronosticadores de todo el mundo aciertan en sus cálculos que indican que las lluvias abundantes comenzarán a partir del segundo semestre del presente año y se extenderán durante el 2024.
Los análisis meteorológicos realizados por la Columbia Climate School indican que ha comenzado una transición desde el fenómeno de La Niña hacia una fase Neutra que se extenderá durante el mes de Abril próximo y pondrá fin a dos campañas agrícolas y ganaderas sumamente complicadas y una última, la más reciente, completamente ruinosa para los productores y el Tesoro nacional.
El International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), organismo dependiente de Columbia Climate School, indicó este jueves que todos los modelos de los principales centros climáticos del mundo –con excepción de uno solo– predicen que en el bimestre marzo/abril de este año ocurrirá una transición hacia una fase “Neutra” del fenómeno Niño-Oscilación del Sur (ENSO) según sus siglas en idioma inglés.
Para el pronosticador argentino Leonardo de Benedictis el momento más terrible de La Niña ya es historia. “…si bien el evento se mantendrá hasta mediados de marzo por lo menos, aunque perdiendo fuerza gradualmente. Será un proceso progresivo, que permitirá generar lluvias de volúmenes menores, pero que abarcarán zonas más extensas espacialmente. Más adelante, al acercarse el invierno, con un patrón climático con otra dinámica, las lluvias pueden ser un poco más abarcativas; en una época de menor evaporación, se pueden recargar los perfiles, para llegar a una primavera en mejores condiciones de humedad”
Desde el exterior, los reportes indican que, “,la transición hacia El Niño, generarán condiciones propicias para una regularización del régimen hídrico en el Cono Sur de Sudamérica en general y la Argentina en particular».
Estos modelos climáticos, enseñan una mayor probabilidad de actuación del “Niño” a partir del segundo semestre de 2023, lo que representa, en caso de cumplirse tal pronóstico, una buena noticia para el Cono Sur porque el mismo está usualmente asociado a lluvias superiores a las normales.
Fuente: Noticias Argentinas
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