La grieta entre la política y la economía
Discurso presidencial y desconfianza de los mercados

No todo en la economía son números, las señales, y sobre todo las políticas, son casi tan definitorias como las propias decisiones en materia de económica. Un poco es lo que está sucediendo con los bonos argentinos que este viernes volvieron a bajar y se ubican en un rendimiento del 19%, con un riesgo país que aumentó a 1600 puntos.
¿Qué significa esto? Ni más ni menos que el plan de Guzmán ha fracasado para los inversores extranjeros, quienes consideran que la deuda argentina no sólo es impagable, sino que el gobierno de Alberto Fernández deja una “bomba de tiempo” a la próxima administración, aunque sea de su propio partido. Es que los mercados esperaban que el gobierno encarar una serie de reformas que apuntaran al crecimiento del país y a la baja del déficit fiscal para generar las condiciones de repago de la deuda refinanciada, algo que, después del discurso presidencial en la Asamblea Legislativa, parece improbable.
Los grandes fondos entienden que el Gobierno posterga la solución de los problemas por sus necesidades electorales, y que, en definitiva, patea la pelota hacia atrás echándole la culpa a Macri. Porque si hay algo que no le interesan a los inversores es el pasado, ni las responsabilidad, sino como se va a pagar lo que prestaron. Y Argentina en eso tiene una deuda pendiente.

La reestructuración de la deuda que hizo Guzmán tenía entre sus objetivos volver sustentable la deuda, es decir, pagable; y lograr volver a tener acceso a los mercados para conseguir fondos y poder refinanciar futuros vencimientos. Pero hasta ahora, no ha logrado ni lo uno ni lo otro, pero no tanto por el ministro, sino por la política en general que propone una cosa y termina haciendo otra.
Entre las cuestiones que más “leen” los inversores están el avance sobre la justicia que, al menos desde lo discursivo, fue un fuerte eje de debate la semana pasada impulsado tanto por Alberto como por Cristina. Y en realidad, el miedo es la inseguridad jurídica que esto provoca. Un país que no es confiable jurídicamente poco puede serlo en lo económico, por eso las palabras de los líderes políticos son tan importantes.
El problema central que tiene el gobierno de Alberto es que tiene que hablarle, por un lado, a la militancia en un año electoral donde necesita una victoria para asegurarse mayoría en la cámara de diputados, pero, por otro lado, tiene que hablarle a la sociedad acerca de un rumbo posible, y a los mercados para darles certidumbres de ese rumbo. Hasta ahora, solo le viene hablando a la militancia, y pareciera que eso no sólo no alcanza, sino que complica la situación financiera del país.

Tal es el nivel de desconfianza que el mismo día que el INDEC divulga datos que son favorables para la economía nacional, el Foro de Convergencia Empresarial divulga una carta durísima contra la política económica actual: “Para seguir invirtiendo precisamos condiciones similares a las de nuestros competidores en América latina”, en criollo, le están pidiendo al gobierno que la inflación deje de ser un problema y empiece a encajar en el margen de un dígito anual, algo que por ahora parece inalcanzable.
Y para colmo de males, el nuevo boom de los comodities, que puede traer divisas frescas a la Argentina va a ser una nueva oportunidad pérdida para el país, porque lo que ingrese por una puerta, va a salir por la otra, y eso más allá del cepo cambiario que está ahogando a varias industrias que necesitan de insumos importados para producir.
El problema económico es grave, pero más grave aún son las consecuencias de los discursos de los dos líderes políticos que hoy conducen el país, quienes parecieran tener una agenda ajena a los problemas que enfrenta el país. La agenda de la reforma judicial no es algo que hoy le importe a la sociedad en general, y menos a quienes hacen malabares para llegar a fin de mes, lo mismo ocurre con los mercados, que están más preocupados por tener certezas de que la deuda será pagada. Y no se trata de hacer una defensa de la deuda, sino de marcar que el foco de la política hoy está puesta en un lugar que no es el de los intereses ni del pueblo ni de los mercados, es decir, está ajena a las necesidades reales, y el costo de la ceguera puede ser muy alto para todos.
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