EL RELEVAMIENTO DEL BANCO CENTRAL ESTIMÓ POR PRIMERA VEZ UNA INFLACIÓN DE TRES DÍGITOS: 100,3%

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Los precios minoristas crecerán en septiembre entre un 6,7% y un 6,9%, según los analistas.

La inflación de septiembre sería de entre el 6,7 y el 6,9% y la estimación para todo el año se ubicaría, por primera vez, en lostres dígitos al llegar al 100,3%, según las proyecciones de los analistas que aportan al Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM), que realiza el Banco Central (BCRA).

 Según el informe de septiembre, los analistas del mercado proyectaron que la inflación minorista para el corriente año se ubicará en 100,3% interanual (5,3 puntos porcentuales superior al pronóstico de la encuesta previa).

Quienes mejor pronosticaron esa variable para el corto plazo, entre las diez principales consultoras, esperan en promedio una inflación de 101,5%interanual 2,1 puntos a la encuesta anterior.

Los participantes del REM revisaron las previsiones de inflación para el año próximo y la subieron 6,5 puntos y la estimaron en un 90,5% interanual y para 2024 en 66,8%.

Las proyecciones del aumento de precios minoristas para septiembre la ubican en el 6,7% en promedio, mientras las diez principales consultoras señalaron que llegaría al 6,9%.

El relevamiento proyecta un crecimiento de la economía para este año de entre un 4,1% y 4,3% (0,5 puntos más que en el REM previo), mientras que para el tercer trimestre del año estimaron una caída del Producto Interno Bruto de entre el 0,5% y el 0,9%.

Las consultoras estimaron que, en el cuarto trimestre, la economía caerá 1,1% y en los primeros tres meses del año próximo subiría un 0,3%.

En la proyección de la tasa BADLAR de bancos privados, para octubre, la estimaron en un 70,0%, que es 3,5 puntos porcentuales superior a la tasa promedio registrada durante septiembre del 66,5%.

Al mencionar las estimaciones del tipo de cambio nominal, los analistas señalaron que prevén que estará entre $ 171,37 y $173,13 por dólar en diciembre próximo.

En cuanto al valor de las exportaciones, quienes integran el REM calcularon un monto para 2022 de US$ 89.344 millones, incrementándose en US$ 819 millones con relación al último informe.

El valor de las importaciones se ubicaría en US$ 83.775 millones, esto es US$ 2.285 millones por encima del pronóstico del relevamiento previo.

Para el nivel de desempleo, el análisis de las consultoras estima un aumento al 7,3% para el tercer trimestre y 7,5 para el cuarto, por encima del 6,9% que dio a conocer el INDEC para el segundo trimestre del año.

La proyección del déficit fiscal primario nominal del Sector Público Nacional no Financiero que realizaron los participantes del REM, para todo este año, se mantuvo casi sin cambios respecto del relevamiento anterior y la estimaron en $ 2.252 miles de millones.

Fuente: Noticias Argentinas.

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