SE ESPERA UNA INFLACIÓN POR ENCIMA DEL 5% EN ENERO
Luego de que la inflación retomara el rumbo alcista en diciembre, con un alza del 5,1%, analistas advirtieron que los precios están lejos de desacelerar y que durante este verano pueden marchar rumbo al 6% mensual. El tema preocupa al Gobierno, que busca controlar el cumplimiento del Programa Precios Justos.
El ministro de Economía Sergio Massa busca que el costo de vida no supere el 30% en el primer semestre del año, para lo cual los precios deberían mantenerse en niveles del 5% mensual. El Presupuesto 2023 prevé que en el año electoral el costo vida de será del 60%, pero las consultoras no piensan lo mismo: desde LCG indicaron que la proyección para fines de este año será de 104%.
Desde el sector explicaron que las principales variables «hacen pensar que el piso de la inflación para 2023 estará bien cerca de los niveles de cierre de este año». Otras consultoras prevén que la suba interanual será similar al de 2022.
Desde la Casa Rosada salieron a destacar que el 2022 cerró con un costo de vida inferior al 100%, por los mejores guarismos alcanzados en el último tramo del año.
Sin embargo, el tipo de cambio, el manejo de la deuda en pesos y las elecciones presidenciales aparecen como los principales factores a la hora de pensar en el impacto sobre la inflación en el año que comienza.
El recalentamiento del dólar en las últimas semanas, con el blue en niveles de $370, también le mete presión al costo de vida y preocupa al equipo económico.
El REM elaborado por el Banco Central proyecta que para junio de este año el IPC de precios estará en 64,6%, lo que significa que para mitad de 2023 ya estará superada la meta del 60% de inflación prevista por el Gobierno para todo 2023.
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