SEGÚN EL INDEC LA INFLACIÓN DE FEBRERO FUE DEL 6,6%
El Índice de precios al consumidor se aceleró al 6,6% en febrero, y acumuló en el primer bimestre del año una variación de 13,1%. En la medición interanual se ubicó en el 102,5%.
La inflación se aceleró con fuerza por tercer mes consecutivo. En febrero se ubicó en el 6,6%, el nivel más alto desde agosto del 2022 cuando el IPC trepó hasta el 7% y muy por encima de lo proyectado por el mercado (+6,1%). Además, en un año superó el 100%, por primera vez en más de tres décadas, así lo informó este martes el Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INDEC).
Por otra parte, la inflación acumuló en el primer bimestre del año un alza del 13,1%. El ítem que más subió el mes pasado fue Alimentos y bebidas no alcohólicas que se disparó 9,8%, principalmente afectado por la fuerte alza de precios en los cortes de carnes y los productos lácteos.
«Es un registro alto, aun así esperamos que marzo sea un mes con una aceleración respecto a este dato. La inflación ya adquirió un componente inercial importante y difícilmente el gabinete económico pueda demostrar logros importantes para bajar de estos niveles en lo que resta del mandato» le dijo a Ámbito, Guido Lorenzo, director ejecutivo de LCG. «Así proyectamos una inflación para 2023 en torno al 90%-100%», amplió.
Por su parte, Gonzalo Semilla, economista Jefe de CREEBBA, agregó: «Con el desalentador 6,6% de inflación de febrero, se rompe la barrera de los tres dígitos, alcanzando el 102,5% interanual, prácticamente idéntico al 102,4% alcanzado en octubre de 1991. Las expectativas del mercado eran del 6,1%, por tanto, este bimestre (+13,1%) deja un sabor amargo en el arranque del año, dificultando conseguir el 60% anual previsto por el gobierno».
Las divisiones que tuvieron aumentos por encima del IPC en febrero fueron Comunicación (+7,8%), sobre la que pesó el alza de los servicios de telefonía e internet y Restaurantes y hoteles (+7,5%). En cuanto Salud (+5,3%) incidió las subas de las cuotas de las prepagas. Las dos divisiones que menos subieron fueron Prendas de vestir y calzado (+3,9%) y Educación (+3,2%).
A su turno, Santiago Manoukian, jefe de Research de Ecolatina, opinó en diálogo con este medio: «En febrero se consolidó el rebote inflacionario visto en enero, tras la moderación ocurrida entre julio-diciembre, con un registro que, tras el impasse de enero, volvió a ubicarse por encima de la expectativa del mercado (el REM-BCRA marcaba un 6,1%). Al igual que lo mostraba nuestro relevamiento, la principal preocupación es que la suba estuvo impulsada por alimentos y bebidas, con mayor preponderancia en la canasta de consumo de los hogares más pobres».
A nivel de las categorías, el IPC Núcleo lideró el aumento (+7,7%), seguido de Regulados (+5,1%), en tanto que Estacionales registró un incremento de 3,3%.
Al respecto, Manoukian explicó: «La notable aceleración del IPC Núcleo de 5,4% a 7,7% es preocupante. Al proveer una aproximación del comportamiento tendencial del nivel general de precio -excluyendo precios regulados, estacionales o con un alto componente regulado -, el indicador da cuenta de la persistencia de una elevada inercia del proceso inflacionario».
«La aceleración de esta categoría -que es la que más le importa al BCRA- ejercería presión sobre la autoridad monetaria en su próxima decisión sobre la tasa de política monetaria (TPM): al rendir 6,3% de TEM mensual, la tasa de interés real ex-post de febrero fue de -0,3% mensual. Cabe recordar que el mes pasado el argumento central del BCRA para mantener inalterada la TPM fue que la inflación Núcleo se había ubicado en un nivel similar al de diciembre (5,4%, +0,1 p.p.)», añadió.
Las regiones que más subieron del país fueron: Noreste (+7,8%), Noroeste (+7,3%), Cuyo (+6,7%), y GBA (+6,7%). Las que menos subieron fueron la zona de la Patagonia (+6,4%) y la Pampeana (+5,8%).
Inflación de febrero: la suba de alimentos fue casi del 10%
En medio de una aceleración de la suba de precios, en el segundo mes de 2023 con respecto al precedente, el rubro de Alimentos y bebidas no alcohólicas quedó por muy encima de la media. Así, entre los alimentos de mayor variación en el GBA aparecieron varios cortes de carne, junto con el precio de la naranja, que saltó un 72,4%. Le siguieron la carne picada común (+35%); el cuadril (+34,3%); la paleta (+33,5%); la nalga (+32,8%); y el asado (+28,6%).
«Como consecuencia de la elevada inflación, habrá un fuerte impacto en las canastas de consumo. Cómo dato testigo, en la ciudad de Bahía Blanca la canasta básica alimentaria aumento 8,8%», advirtió Gonzalo Semilla, economista Jefe de CREEBBA.
Inflación: qué se proyecta para marzo
Lorenzo, de LCG, advirtió que «esperamos que marzo sea un mes con una aceleración respecto a este dato». Manoukian y Semilla coincidieron en señalar que para cumplir con el 60% proyectado en el Presupuesto 2023, entre marzo y diciembre la inflación debería promediar un 3,5% mensual.
De acuerdo a las mediciones de alta frecuencia del CREEBBA, en los primeros quince días de marzo el capítulo de Alimentos y Bebidas acumula un alza del 4,4%, alcanzando igual porcentaje que durante la primera quincena de febrero.
«Algunas de las variables sensibles asociadas a la inflación que deberán ser monitoreadas son el tipo de cambio oficial (con devaluaciones mensuales del orden del 5,5%), los posibles aumentos en las tasas de interés (hoy al 6,16% mes), el endurecimiento de las importaciones (por escases de acumulación de reservas, sin crédito externo y con sequía), el ajustes de tarifas de servicios públicos (como exigencia del FMI a la baja del déficit del gasto público al 1,9% del PBI), el ruido político incrementándose a medida que se aproxima el cierre de listas, entre otras», cerró Semilla.
Fuente: Ámbito.
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